Twins Season Preview- Off-Season Edition

I've decided that I am going to put together a series of Twins Season Previews this year. It will be a set of 3 posts- One today in the off-season, one closer to the beginning of spring training, and one at the end of spring training before the season opener. In each of these 3 entries, I plan on talking about possible scenarios for how the Twins season will pan out, including a look at the team position by position, as well as the team as a whole. I think it will be interesting to take a look at the team a couple different times leading up to the season opener and see how they look. It'll be fun to look back on these posts at the end of the season and see how my predictions matched up with what actually happened. So, without further ado, here is my off-season edition of a Twins season preview!

Pitching staff:

1. Phil Hughes- After last year, Hughes has proven that he should be our #1 starter. He had a great year, posting a 16-10 record, 3.52 ERA, a career season-high 186 strikeouts, and a very good 4.3 WAR. I see no reason why he shouldn't be able to repeat last year's performance. He's entering into what could be his prime years at 28 years old, and returning to pitcher friendly Target Field. In a rotations with a lot of question marks, look for Hughes to be the anchor to a staff that has been lacking a true #1 since the Johan Santana days.
2. Ricky Nolasco- Obviously, Nolasco had a poor year last year, managing only a 6-12 record and an ERA over 5.00. However, he easily could have had a much better record, as the Twins lost 5 games where he started and earned a decision. If the Twins are able to give a little more run support, we could have seen Nolasco post a 8-10 or better record. However, you would still generally expect more out of a player that was signed to a 4-year, $49 million deal. That being said, I expect a better year from Nolasco. I don't expect him to win 20 games this year, but I there are multiple signs that point to last year just being a fluke. I am looking for Nolasco to have a good bounce back year and win 10+ games for us and solidify the 2nd slot in our rotation
3. Kyle Gibson- Gibson had a decent 2014 campaign. He showed that he is capable of shutting out MLB teams for 6+ innings, but he needs to work on consistency. In his 13 wins last year, he gave up 0 or 1 runs on 9 different occasions. However, in games where he got the loss, he got shelled, giving 5+ runs in 10 of his 11 losses. So, consistency is something I am looking for Gibson to improve upon in the 2015 season. That being said, he also was the victim of some bad luck last year. In 3 of his starts where he got a no-decision, he went 6+ innings and gave up 0 runs, but the team went on to lose the game. If Gibson can improve on his consistency, and if the Twins can make use of every strong start Gibson gives them, I can see Gibson winning 16+ games and becoming an essential part in our rotation.
4. Tommy Milone- The back of our rotation is iffy right now. Trevor May will get the 5th slot, at least at the beginning of the year, but the 4th slot may be up for grabs right now. At this time, I envision Milone claiming this spot in the rotation. He has the stuff to pitch in the pros, posting a 6-3 record last year before being sent down to the minors by the A's as a result of a couple blockbuster trades that brought them some ace pitchers, pushing Milone out of the rotation. He was then traded to the Twins, where he pitched decent, but wasn't credited with any more wins in 5 starts. Milone pitched decent, but also was the victim of a bit of bad luck, as the Twins won by 14 runs and 6 runs in two of his starts, but he didn't pitch long enough in the game to get a win. In summary, I see Milone returning to form this year and winning 10+ games again as he did in the 2012 and 2013 seasons.
5. Trevor May- May struggled last year. On one hand, he struck out 44 batters in 45+ innings pitched. On the other hand, he gave up 40 earned runs in those 45+ innings. 2015 will be a big year for May, as he tries to prove that he belongs in a big-league rotation. If he wants to do so, he must pitch deeper into games, as in his 9 starts last year, he didn't last through the 5th inning on 4 different occasions. If May struggles in the first third of this season, look for him to move to the bullpen and allow another pitcher, possibly Alex Meyer, take over in the rotation

Closer- Glen Perkins- Perk regressed a little bit last year. He still managed 34 saved, but he was letting a lot more runners on base than he did in the season before. We also saw his ERA jump from 2.30 in 2013 to 3.65 last year. However, his K rate remained strong as he averaged a strikeout every inning pitched, and he made the All-Star team for the 2nd straight year. Perkins should save 30+ games for the Twins again this year, but he is a player to keep an eye on as last year showed signs to worry about. Hopefully it was just a blip on the radar and Perk will come back strong with another All-Star year

Position players:

Catcher- Kurt Suzuki- I am optimistic about Suzuki's 2015 season. He was by far our most clutch hitter last year, driving in 61 runs, many of which coming in crucial moments in the game. Suzuki doesn't hit for power, as he has just 70 HRs in his 8 year career. But he showed that he can put up a decent batting average (.288 in 2014), and as mentioned, come through when he needs to. Although there was a lot of talk about the Twins transitioning to Josmil Pinto taking over the catching position, signing Suzuki to a 2-year extension last year showed that they aren't quite ready to hand over the reigns yet. I see the Twins using Suzuki as their main catcher for the next few years, possibly giving Pinto some starts when Suzuki needs a day off. Farther along these 2 years, I can see Suzuki mentoring Pinto and allowing Pinto to take over when Suzuki isn't offered an extension (but I can see Suzuki playing for us for another 3-4 years). However, the 2015 catcher spot will be owned by Suzuki and will be locked down until he completely regresses.
1st base- Joe Mauer- Well, here it comes- The "Mauer needs to stay healthy" talk. Yes, he does. But that's all I'm going to say about his oft-injured past few years. The other pressing issue is the disappearance of his bat last year. Mauer only managed a .277 batting average last year. That isn't bad by any means, and was still 3rd overall of Twins that played in over 50 games last year, but coming from Mauer- Yes, it's bad. Where did his .320+ batting average go? I question if he was playing injured a lot last year. That could explain why his numbers were way down. I hope and believe that last year was more of a fluke. There's no real reason why he wasn't producing last year. I think that he will return to form this year and bring his batting average back up over .300, possibly even contend for another batting title. However, the key to this is staying healthy. If he can do that, we will see a good year out of Mauer
2nd base- Brian Dozier- Dozier was one of, if not THE, brightest spots on our team last year. He hit very well (23 HRs, 71 RBIs), and was a key part of our team. He joined the 20 HR, 20 steals club as well. Additionally, despite getting any recognition, he played stellar defensively. There is no reason why Dozier shouldn't be able to continue his success. If he does so, he may climb the ranks of the league's best 2nd basemen and make a run at an All-Star appearance as well. Dozier has 2nd base locked down for the long run, and the Twins have no reason to consider other options
Shortstop- Eduardo Escobar- I place Escobar here for now, but I see Danny Santana eventually taking over the SS position. I'll talk more about it when I get to the CF slot, but Santana will have to move out of center when Buxton is called up (unless the Twins want to shift Buxton to left). But anyways Eduardo Escobar- This guy was a doubles machine last year. He ended with 35 overall, but it seemed like he would hit a 2-bagger in nearly every game I watched. I see Escobar holding down the shortstop position until Buxton is closer to being ready for the MLB. Then, I think Santana will move to short, and Escobar will be pushed to a utility role. That may happen later on in the 2015 season, or it could be another year or two. Either way, Escobar is solid with the glove, and if he can repeat his .275 batting average from last year, he will be a great asset at short for the Twins
Third base- Trevor Plouffe- Plouffe is another guy that had a pretty good year last year. he made all the people that were saying he was basically only a placeholder until Sano gets called up, myself included, question that statement. I still believe Sano is the long term answer at 3rd, but Plouffe is making himself too good to keep out of the lineup. That isn't an issue yet, as Sano still needs some more time, but Plouffe hit wonderfully last year. He ended 4th in the AL with 40 doubles, and brought in 80 runs. If Plouffe can maintain a hot bat, and maybe bring back some power from his 24-HR 2012 season, it will create an interesting situation when Sano is ready for the pros. In 2015, look for Plouffe to hit well again and for there to be not much uncertainty over 3rd base for the Twins
Left field- Jordan Schafer- Man, can this guy run. He historically hasn't hit well, batting over .250 for the first time in his career last year, but once he gets on base, watch out- He is a threat to steal on every pitch. I'm not sure if Schafer will fit into our long term roster with any bigger of a role than a pinch runner/bench player, but he should get a good number of starts out in left field and center field this year. If the Twins decide to start preparing for the Buxton era and give Danny Santana more games at shortstop, look for Schafer to shift over and cover center field. This year, Schafer should get some good playing time, cover the 9th slot in the batting order, and get a chance to steal a lot of bases
Center field- Danny Santana- I like this kid a lot. He had a fantastic year last year. He played in the shadows of Jose Abreu in the AL Central and didn't get a lot of recognition, but Santana had a ROY-worthy year and would have gotten some votes if not for Abreu. As I mentioned before, I see Santana as our SS of the future. However, I think he will play most of his games in center field again like he did last year. He will eventually shift back to his natural shortstop position, but until Buxton is ready, the Twins can put their best lineup on the field when Santana is playing in center. Wherever he plays, Santana gives the Twins the leadoff batter they were looking for in Aaron Hicks. Santana hit very well (.319 batting average), and gave some good speed once on base (20 steals). The crazy thing is, last year was his rookie year. He played like a veteran, playing well and not making many bad mistakes. I see Santana playing well again this year and establishing himself as an important core to our long term roster
Right Field- Oswaldo Arcia- Oswaldo has played well enough the past 2 seasons to earn himself the starting job in right. However, he still has things he can improve on. He has hit well and with enough power to make opposing pitchers consider how they pitch to him- 20 HRs, 57 RBIs last year. However, he needs to strike out less. He has been rung up over 110 times each of his past two seasons. I see the Twins coaching staff working with him on his discipline at the plate. If he can cut down on the number of pitches he chases out of the zone and force pitchers to throw him strikes, his numbers will improve all around. Either way, Arcia has established himself as our every day right fielder and is a good 5th or 6th slot presence in the batting order
Designated hitter- Kennys Vargas- This kid is freaky strong. He's only 24, but he hits the ball harder than nearly anyone I have ever seen. He only appeared in 53 games last year, but hit 9 homers and knocked in 38 RBIs. Over a full season, he should be able to push 30 HRs and 100 RBIs. Like Arcia, he is prone to strike out (63 Ks in only 53 games), but his main role with the team moving forward will be to mash baseballs into the bleachers. He can play first and let Mauer have a day off if he needs, but Vargas is more well suited to DH and should lock down the cleanup hitter slot in the Twins lineup for many years to come. Man, I'm excited to see what this guy will do

Projected opening day lineup:

C- Kurt Suzuki
1b- Joe Mauer
2b- Brian Dozier
SS- Eduardo Escobar
3b- Trevor Plouffe
LF- Jordan Schafer
CF- Danny Santana
RF- Oswaldo Arcia
DH- Kennys Vargas
Pitcher- Phil Hughes

Projected opening day batting order:

1. Danny Santana
2. Brian Dozier
3. Joe Mauer
4. Kennys Vargas
5. Oswaldo Arcia
6. Trevor Plouffe
7. Kurt Suzuki
8. Eduardo Escobar
9. Jordan Schafer

Overall thoughts for the 2015 season- I think that the Twins are going to be a better team than they were last year. However, it is going to be hard for them to creep back up into the .500 record range and beyond unless their pitchers can have good years and their batters can push more runs across. With all the talk about our core of prospects, right now I doubt Buxton or Sano will make their debuts this year. One guy I think will make his first big-league appearance is Alex Meyer. If Trevor May struggles, I anticipate the Twins moving him to the bullpen and replacing him in the starting lineup with Meyer. Max Kepler could also see some big-league action this year, making appearances in the outfield, either as a backup role, or starting if Schafer struggles. Additionally, if the Twins decide to start giving Danny Santana more playing time at short instead of center, Kepler could see a lot of game time in left field while Schafer shifts to center. No matter what happens with the preparations for the Byron Buxton era, the Twins' success this year is going to rely on two things. First, starting pitching. Our starters need to give us a chance to win ballgames. Secondly, our veterans (Mauer, Suzuki, Plouffe) need to play as they are capable of, and our young guys (Santana, Vargas) need to play to their potential. We desperately need to give our pitchers some run support to work with. Best case scenario, our starters pitch well and our lineup produces runs, and we can get back into the 70-80 win range. Worse case scenario, our pitchers continue to struggle, and our position players can't get runs across the plate and we end the year with 90 losses again.

That's my off-season edition of the Twins season preview! The next edition of a season preview will come closer to the beginning of spring training. Until then, I'll discuss whatever is on my mind at the time of my posts. Thanks much for reading, I hope you enjoyed!

91 days until spring training!

Welcomes and Introductions

Welcome to the first post of my new blog, Dugout Discussions!

Thank you for making your way to my blog, I hope you will enjoy it! As this is my first post on this blog, I thought it would be appropriate to start with some general introductions of what I intend to post on this blog, as well as some background about myself. Let's get right to it!

As you probably inferred from the title of my blog, I will generally be posting topics related to baseball. As you will find out later on in my introduction of myself below, I am also a baseball card fanatic, so I may be posting card-related entries as well. However, as of now, my main purpose for this blog will be to share my thoughts on various subjects in the baseball world. I plan on sharing my opinions, analyzing various plays, trades, games, series, etc through the year, and trying to provide an enjoyable yet insightful look at baseball. That being said, I may find over time that I want to include posts relating to other subjects For example, I am a big hockey fan as well as baseball, so I am kind of expecting that I will post some hockey-related entries somewhere along the way. I won't hesitate to post these non-baseball related entries, as I want this blog to be an enjoyable experience for both whoever happens to be reading this, as well as myself. However, do feel that the majority of my post here are going to be baseball related in some way, and 99% of my posts will be sports-related. I hope that you find my entries to be entertaining and interesting, thanks for visiting my first post!

Now, let's get to an introduction of myself so you can have an idea of what I am like:

Name: Matt

Nickname/Online Alias: Hollywood42

Why Hollywood42? Back in my days of elementary school in-house baseball, I used to wear sunglasses all the time, no matter what. So, the first nickname I had was "Shades". Not very creative, but it felt well. That all changed one day when we were playing our weekly Tuesday night game, and I stood in the wrong on-deck circle and almost got nailed by a foul ball. As the ball flew in the direction of my sunglasses-bearing self, the opposing coach yelled "Heads up, Hollywood!" And it stuck. From then on, I was known as Hollywood. I am no longer playing competitive baseball, but some of the guys I played travel ball with still call me Hollywood. The "42" in my name also comes from my baseball playing career, although it's not nearly as exciting of a story. 42 just happened to be the number I picked the first year I played travel baseball, so it was the number I wore for the majority of my baseball career. Hence, Hollywood42!

Occupation: I am currently a student attending Luther college (Decorah, Iowa). I am double majoring in Computer Science and Math Applications. I haven't declared a minor yet, but Religion is a possibility.

Location: While school is not in session, I live at home in the suburbs of the Twin Cities in Minnesota. Born and raised there, lived there my whole life.

What are your favorite sports/teams? Baseball will always be my favorite sport. I've been a huge Twins fan since day one, and will always stick with the team through thick and thin. I'm also a big hockey fan, where I cheer on the Wild and the Minnesota Gophers. I'm not a huge fan of pro basketball, but I generally have a halfway decent idea of what's going on in the league. I will, however, follow the Gopher hoops team pretty closely. In the football world, I root for the Vikings, and again the Gophers. It's been rough recently for the purple and gold, but the Gophers have put together a great season for us. That covers the core four sports, but I'll add in that I love watching both the men's and women's USA soccer matches when the World Cup and Olympics roll around.

Do you play any sports? I played baseball (2nd base/shortstop), basketball (wing) and soccer (keeper) for a very long time. I dropped soccer when I before to high school, but I played baseball and basketball into high school. I am no longer playing either of those sports competitively, but I am an O-line cutter on Luther's nationally competitive ultimate frisbee team (LUFDA). Lots of people don't know a lot about ultimate- If you are one of those people, I highly recommend you check out our sport! It's a very fast, intense game with potential for amazing plays on every throw. It's a wonderful sport!

Who are your favorite players? I can never pick just one, so I'll name a few from a couple sports- In the baseball world, I'm fairly certain Justin Morneau will always be my favorite player. I'm also big fans of Chris Herrmann, Michael Cuddyer, and Danny Santana. In the hockey realm, I've found it a lot harder to pick just one or two guys. I liked Jason Zucker a lot (and still do), but there have been a lot of guys on the Wild that I've found myself cheering on a lot too (Parise, Haula, Grandlund, Coyle, Pominville- How am I supposed to stick to one or two?)

You mentioned you collect baseball cards? Yes! Baseball cards has provided a great hobby for me since the day I got a cheap Hank Aaron giveaway card in a box of cereal when I was probably somewhere around 8 years old. I didn't do a whole lot with collecting, outside of buying cards whenever they popped up at garage sales, until I joined my first online trading site when I was 14 years old. I made hundreds of trades on that site, and my collection grew a lot. Since then, I have joined two larger sites (SCF and Blowout, for any reader coming from those sites), and made over 200 trades on those sites combined. Now, I have thousands and thousands of cards in my collection. As you may be able to guess, I focus mainly on collecting Twins cards (but I do go after some others as well- a couple of non-Twins players, Wild hockey cards, etc). It's a great hobby that I really enjoy!

What are a couple of your favorite cards? Why, I'm glad you asked and gave me the opportunity to show a couple off! It's always hard to pick, but I'll show 3 of my favorites:

2013 Panini America's Pastime Black Chris Herrmann 1/1- The only one in the world! Just one of my favorite Herrmann cards.

2005 Ultimate Collection Ultimate Materials Patch Justin Morneau #ed 03/25- A great looking card with a cool patch from a jersey that Morneau once wore.

2009 Ultimate Collection Ultimate Patch Joe Mauer #ed 12/35- By far the coolest patch I have in my collection. This came from part of the Twins logo on a jersey that Mauer wore! I absolutely love this card.

Outside of sports and cards, what do you like to do? Like any other college guy, I enjoy gaming- usually casually, but I'll have those days were I waste 4+ hours gaming. I mostly play the Call of Duty series, NBA/MLB/Madden/Fifa, Skyrim, but one of my favorite all time games that will be very hard to beat is Backyard Baseball 2003. I like listening to music a lot- I'm a rock fan. Some of my favorite bands are Breaking Benjamin, My Darkest Days, Creed, and Ashes Remain. The Foo Fighters will be in town for a concert this summer, and I'm hoping to make it to that- It would be sweet! Other than that, I really love being outside, spending afternoons with my friends throwing around a frisbee, playing soccer, etc.

Do you have any pets? I try not to bring much of my personal life into my posts, but I had to ask this question to myself so I could show off my dog- Her name's Evye, a 3 or 4 year old Golden Retriever. I love her to death!

Photo credits to my sister, as well as incredibly photogenic Evye!
She likes frisbee too!

That's all I have to share in my first post in Dugout Discussions! Thank you for reading my first of many entries, I hope you will stick around and read my future posts! Most all of my posts after this one will be less about me, and more about baseball/other sports. So, check back often for some new posts! My plan is to type up how I think the Twins will do in the 2015 season for my next post. I might do that this afternoon or tonight, but I'm not sure yet. Either way, I hope you check back in the future for my posts! If you find yourself liking what you read, I would appreciate it if you would subscribe to my posts to get a notification when I post something new. Thanks much for reading my first blog post on Dugout Discussions! Until next time, take care!