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Monday, December 1, 2014

Danny Santana's Rookie Season- Just How Good Was It?

Any follower of the Twins knows that Danny Santana had a fantastic rookie campaign. If not for Jose Abreu, I am a strong believer that Santana would have gotten serious consideration for last year's Rookie of the Year award. Abreu won the award unanimously, while Santana was overshadowed and only received 1 vote overall, a 2nd place vote. Regardless, his rookie year was great and Santana is already solidified himself in many minds as a core cog in the long term Twins roster. But just how good was Santana's rookie year in comparison to the best rookie seasons in Twins history? Today I'll be taking a look at that question based on Bleacher Report's list of the top 10 Twins rookie seasons (posted after the 2012 season). Here is their list:

10. Kirby Puckett
9. Doug Corbett
8. Danny Valencia
7. John Castino
6. Francisco Liriano
5. Chuck Knoblauch
4. Rod Carew
3. Marty Cordova
2. Kent Hrbek
1. Tony Oliva

Remember, this is solely a comparison of first year seasons, not a guess of who's careers or legacies is/will be better or worse. I'll compare the rookie season of each player in the above list to Danny Santana's rookie year and ultimately place Danny Santana among the others to determine, in my opinion, where his rookie season compares to the best in Twins history. Let's get to it!

Challenger #1- Kirby Puckett (1984)

Advantage- Santana, 11-4
Puckett had the advantage of 27 games and over 150 plate appearances which helped him accumulate 36 more hits than Santana, but Danny still managed to beat him out in doubles, triples, home runs, and RBIs. Santana had the edge on the base paths, stealing 20 bases to Kirby's 14, and getting throw out just 4 times to Kirby's 7. They were similar in both batting average on-base percentage, and wins above replacement (WAR), but Santana's stronger batting average and advantages in all extra-base hits categories give him the nod over Kirby. It remains to be seen if Santana will be able to have as large of an impact on the Twins organization as Puckett had, but his 2013 rookie season bests Puckett's 1984 rookie year.

Victor- Santana

Challenger #2- Doug Corbett (1980)


This is one of several trickier comparisons, as Corbett was the Twins closer in the 1980 season. He finished with a solid 23 saves, notably the same number of saves as Rollie Fingers that season. Corbett posted a solid sub-2.00 ERA and had a very strong 5.7 WAR. He had a shot at even stronger saves and strikeouts, but the Twins finished with a record under .500, finishing 3rd in the American League West Division and not providing Corbett with a lot of save opportunities. I'm giving Santana the edge in this round, due to a larger overall impact on the team and a larger role played during his rookie season.

Victor- Santana

Challenger #3- Danny Valencia (2010)

Advantange- Santana, 10-3-2
Many of Santana's and Valencia's rookies are very close- They hit the same number of home runs and RBIs, and were very close in batting average, walks, and on-base percentage. However, Santana owns the categories of games played, tuns, hits, doubles, steals, WAR, and he takes this round as well.

Victor- Santana

Challenger #4- John Castino (1979)

Advantage- Santana, 8-7
The matchup between Santana and the 1979 Rookie of the Year is a close one. They have very similar stats in triples, home runs, and trade off the advantages in key stats. While Castino played in nearly 50 more games than Santana, Santana manages to hold superior in hits, doubles and home runs. The extra at bats helped Castino hold the trples, strikeouts and walks categories, but may have deflated his batting average a bit. This round is close, but goes to Santana for his advantages in batting average, runs, and WAR.

Victor- Santana

Challenger #5- Francisco Liriano (2006)


While this is another tough comparison to a pitcher, this matchup is very, very close. As great of a season that Santana had, Liriano makes an argument for having a better season. His 12 wins tied Brad Radke for 2nd in the category of the Twins that year, and Liriano's 2.16 was the team's best. He allowed only 29 earned runs in 28 games, pitching Liriano missed chances to improve his numbers even further after injuring an arm and being placed on the disabled list in early August. To that point, he had been in discussion for the AL's Cy Young and Rookie of the Year awards, but missing the majority of the second half of the season due to injury caused him to drop out of discussion. Still, he had a strong enough first half to earn an All-Star selection and finish 3rd in the AL ROY voting. Missing the 2nd half of the year is the main reason why Santana gains back points in this round and manages to tie Liriano's rookie season in my book.

Victor- None!

Challenger #6- Chuck Knoblauch (1991)

Advantage- Knoblauch, 8-7
The 1991 AL Rookie of the Year winner gives Santana is closest matchup yet. Knoblauch started off his Hall of Fame career very strong, playing in nearly all of the Twins games and posting a solid .281 batting average. He beats out Santana in runs scored, hits, RBIs, walks, steals and strikeouts, but Santana bests him in batting average, doubles, and WAR. As close as the matchup is, Knoblauch beats out Santana in this round due to his massive role in the Twins 1991 season, including key plays in the Twins 2nd World Series title (including bunting over the winning run in the bottom of 9th in Game 7). Santana's performance comes close but is beat out by Knoblauch's integral part of a World Series-winning team.

Victor- Knoblauch

Challenger #7- Rod Carew (1967)

Advantage- Even, 7-7-1
Danny Santana's rookie stats match up very well to Rod Carew's Rookie of the Year season. One would think that Carew's first of 18 straight All-Star years would leave Santana in the dust, but it is in reality very close. Carew managed to play in more games and earn more plate appearances, which helped him take the slight advantange in hits, home runs, and RBIs. However, Santana still manages to best Carew in runs scored, batting average, doubles, steals, and on-base percentage. This is another close matchup in which I am not entirely sure how to pick a winner. This time around, I have to give the slight edge to Rod Carew for a fantastic rookie year in a Hall of Fame career. It could go either way, but I have to give Carew the nod.

Victor- Carew

Challenger #8- Marty Cordova (1995)

Advantage- Cordova, 7-6-2
Cordova is another Rookie of the Year winner with eerily similar stats to Santana. They scored nearly the game about of runs, were only 13 hits apart from being even, hit the same number of two-baggers, stole the same number of bases, and were nearly dead-on in on-base percentage. Cordova takes the victory in this round, due to his power at the plate that didn't take away and speed on the base paths. Cordova hit many more home runs as Santana and drove in over double the number of runs While Santana is not a power hitter, Cordova still gets the nod as he was able to keep up with Santana in the steals department.

Victor- Cordova

Challenger #9- Kent Hrbek (1981)

Advantage- Hrbek, 8-7
Santana matches up well to the runner-up Rookie of the Year and All-Star first basemen in 1981. Hrbek is another player with a different role than Santana at the plate, hitting many more home runs and RBIs than Santana. While Santana owns Hrbek in doubles, triples, steals, and on-base percentage, this is another close matchup. Hrbek gets bonus points for finishing 2nd in AL ROY voting to Cal Ripken Jr, and narrowly takes the round from Santana.

Victor- Santana

Challenger #10- Tony Oliva (1964)

Advantage- Oliva, 13-2
This is the only matchup in which Danny Santana simply has no change. How is one supposed to top Tony Oliva's rookie year? Tony-O won the AL Rookie of the Year, was named an All-Star, and finished 4th in MVP voting. He led the league in batting average, runs scored, total hits, and doubles while playing in all but one of the Twins games that year. Oliva's first of 8 straight All-Star, MVP-vote earning seasons is simply no match for Danny Santana's rookie year.

Victor- Oliva



And, there you have it! In head-to-head matchup against Bleacher Report's top 10 Twins rookie reasons, Danny Santana posts a 5-4-1 record in many close matchups. If I had to rewrite the list of top Twins rookie performances including Danny Santana's 2014 season, I would have to come to the following conclusion:

11. Kirby Puckett
10. Doug Corbett
9. Danny Valencia
8. John Castino
7. Francisco Liriano
6. Chuck Knoblauch
5. Marty Cordova
4. Danny Santana
3. Rod Carew
2. Kent Hrbek
1. Tony Oliva

Multiple of these matchups have gone either way, but that list reflects my opinions as to the top Twins rookie seasons in history. If this is any indicator as to what Santana's career could produce, wow. Based on rookie seasons alone, he hangs right in there with current Hall of Famers. The only way to tell what will happen is to wait and find out, but if his rookie season is any indication as to what he may be able to do in the years to come, Twins fans everywhere are going to really enjoy watching Danny Santana in the future.

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